Raiders @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

1-1 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

NO -3.5

✓ LV W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 20–23 NO

✗ NO (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -3

CloseNO -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -3

0.5 → NO

CloseNO -3.5

0.5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -3 · closed NO -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward NOmodel NO -2

model NO -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (222 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 28% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -3

CloseNO -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 3.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 35–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.4; 49 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
NO WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UU	0-2	0%	2-0
NO OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 249 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NO	6-4 60%	8-1 89%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LV 5–4 NO LV leads · 9 games since 2000 · LV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 25 @ New Orleans Saints 10	LV -2.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−1.4▲ 1.6#22

NO−1.2 →−0.1▲ 1.1#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

NO better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ LV better

#21

+1.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ LV better

−0.5 #21

64 plays #9

Pace

NO faster ▶

75 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #12	24.0 #19	LV
Yards / play	4.69 #28	5.28 #17	NO
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	+0.05 #18	Even
Success rate	39% #26	53% #31	LV

When NO has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	NO off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #9	13.5 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #20	5.08 #11	LV
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	−0.25 #1	LV
Success rate	43% #18	35% #1	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 24 teams

LV scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.5	10.0	13.5	8.5	4.5	13.0
NO allowed	7.0	3.5	10.5	8.5	1.5	10.0

NO scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	0.0	3.0	3.0	8.5	12.5	21.0
LV allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	7.0	0.0	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.