Saints @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

0-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-0 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

✓ NO W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 19–28 BAL

✗ BAL (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -7.5

CloseBAL -8.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -7.5

1 → BAL

CloseBAL -8.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -7.5 · closed BAL -8.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -7

model BAL -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 44% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -7.5

CloseBAL -8.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like BAL as an 8.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 8.7; 48.1 points a game (usually 47.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Loose	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Loose	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Loose	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Loose	DET vs MIN 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-9.5	24–27	L	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
BAL W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO O	1-0	100%	0-1
BAL O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	3-7 30%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 3–5 BAL BAL leads · 8 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−0.6▲ 0.6#20

BAL+0.7 →+2.7▲ 2.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

BAL

#17

Offense

BAL better ▶

#17

Defense

BAL better ▶

#11

−2.0 #28

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+1.0 #11

86 plays #1

Pace

◀ NO faster

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	NO off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #11	23.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #16	4.74 #10	BAL
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.24 #6	BAL
Success rate	42% #21	42% #11	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #2	31.0 #22	BAL
Yards / play	7.91 #1	5.05 #11	BAL
EPA / play	+0.32 #5	0.00 #16	BAL
Success rate	50% #5	45% #19	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.