Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Indianapolis Colts
Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #10
41
▲ winner
Final
@
0-0 · Power #21
23
final
Closing spread
BAL -3
✓ BAL W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 64 pts
Model before kickoff
BAL 26–23 IND
✓ BAL (59%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenBAL -3.5
CloseBAL -3
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
0.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAL -3.5 · closed BAL -3 · moved 0.5 toward INDmodel IND -1
Opened 49.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 1 downmodel 49
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (132 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenBAL -3.5
CloseBAL -3
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 41–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.6; 45.3 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-27–34 L U46.5
Very close
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total
-2.59–27 L U47.5
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread
-2.520–13 W U51.5
Very close
2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & total
-1.527–24 W O46.5
Very close
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.547–9 W O52.5
Very close
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total
-2.524–14 W U48.5
Very close
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-3.529–27 L O48.5
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread
-3.522–17 W U46.5
Very close
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total
-2.520–30 L O46.5
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total
-1.528–25 W O47.5
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Baltimore Ravens have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
IND +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
BAL1st game
IND1st game
Even