Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Pittsburgh Steelers
Closing spread
PIT -6.5
✓ PIT W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
ATL 19–25 PIT
✓ PIT (71%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenPIT -3
ClosePIT -6.5
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPIT -3
3.5 → PIT
ClosePIT -6.5
3.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers
Total
Open42.5
▼ 2
Close40.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PIT -3 · closed PIT -6.5 · moved 3.5 toward PITmodel PIT -2
model PIT -2
Opened 42.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 2 downmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 51% (134 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 21% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenPIT -3
ClosePIT -6.5
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PIT as a 6.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: PIT won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 40.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 54%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 6.3; 39.5 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 29–6 | W | U39.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation |
-6.5 | 23–9 | W | U37.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 20–29 | L | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation |
-7.5 | 20–15 | L | U43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-5.5 | 19–23 | L | U44.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings |
-8.5 | 34–19 | W | O43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-4.5 | 26–10 | W | U44.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 26–20 | L | O42.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 13–18 | L | U41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close |
-5.5 | 19–17 | L | U43.5 |
NO
NYJ
CLE
SEA
NYG
LAR
LV
PHI
SF
MIA
JAX
CAR
DEN
KC
LACHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Pittsburgh Steelers ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Pittsburgh Steelers
3.5 pts (PIT -3 → PIT -6.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 2
42.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Atlanta Falcons have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| PIT | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
ATL 1–7 PIT (1 tied)
PIT leads · 9 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 6 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 2024 | Pittsburgh Steelers 18 @ Atlanta Falcons 10 | ATL -4.5 | PIT W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
PIT +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 7 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ATL1st game
PIT1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
TB @ 
CIN
DET
BAL @ 
IND
CHI @ 
NE @ 
TEN
BUF @ 
HOU