Steelers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-0 · Power #17

final

Final

New England Patriots

0-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -4.5

✓ NE W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 19–24 NE

✓ NE (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -4.5

no move

CloseNE -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -4.5 · unchangedmodel NE -5.5

model NE -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (145 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 4.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 20–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.6; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · close	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar total	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT W	1-0	100%	—	—
NE P	0-0-1	—	—	—

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT U	0-1	0%	1-0
NE U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PIT 5–15 NE NE leads · 20 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 21 @ New England Patriots 14	PIT -1.5	PIT W
Dec 7 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	PIT -5.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →−0.2▲ 0.3#16

NE+1.8 →+1.7▼ 0.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

PIT

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

Even

#26

Defense

◀ PIT better

#15

+1.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−3.0 #32

64 plays #12

Pace

Even

67 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	PIT off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #22	13.0 #8	NE
Yards / play	4.13 #29	5.94 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.30 #30	+0.07 #18	NE
Success rate	33% #32	40% #10	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	NE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #31	13.0 #6	PIT
Yards / play	4.13 #28	4.18 #6	PIT
EPA / play	−0.11 #21	−0.32 #2	PIT
Success rate	42% #22	39% #6	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.