Lions @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff66°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

1-0 · Power #12

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

1-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

✓ BUF W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 23–29 BUF

✓ BUF (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -5.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3

2.5 → BUF

CloseBUF -5.5

2.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3 · closed BUF -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -3.5

model BUF -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 48% (114 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 27% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -5.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 5.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 41–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 5.3; 58 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	LAR vs TB 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings	-7.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	DET vs PIT 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	24–29	L	O52.5
Close	DET vs DAL 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	44–30	W	O55.5
Close	LAR vs DET 2025 · Week 15 · close	-5.5	41–34	W	O54.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET L	0-1	0%	—	—
BUF W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET O	1-0	100%	1-0
BUF O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 18 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–57.5, 44% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 1–7 BUF BUF leads · 8 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 15 2024	Buffalo Bills 48 @ Detroit Lions 42	DET -2.5	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.1▼ 0.5#11

BUF+2.1 →+2.8▲ 0.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

DET

Longer bar = better

BUF

#15

Offense

BUF better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ DET better

#20

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ DET better

+2.0 #7

73 plays #2

Pace

◀ DET faster

52 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #9	31.0 #25	DET
Yards / play	5.05 #22	5.22 #14	BUF
EPA / play	0.00 #16	+0.07 #20	Even
Success rate	45% #13	47% #22	DET

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #5	30.0 #22	BUF
Yards / play	7.87 #3	5.45 #17	BUF
EPA / play	+0.23 #5	−0.03 #14	BUF
Success rate	40% #24	42% #13	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.