Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Detroit Lions
Closing spread
DET -7
✓ NO W
Total
49.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
NO 20–27 DET
✓ DET (74%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDET -7
CloseDET -7
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDET -7
no move
CloseDET -7
No change since the open
Total
Open48.5
▲ 1
Close49.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DET -7 · unchangedmodel DET -6.5
model DET -6.5
Opened 48.5 · closed 49.5 · moved 1 upmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 52% (102 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDET -7
CloseDET -7
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DET as a 7-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: DET won 31–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 56%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 6.5; 45.5 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread |
-7.5 | 31–7 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-7 | 20–9 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 19–44 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 27–22 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-7 | 33–15 | W | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–20 | L | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 28–13 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-5.5 | 30–24 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 19–13 | L | U45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 30–27 | L | O49.5 |
BUF
DEN
SF
CAR
DAL
ARI
NE
NYG
HOU
JAX
TB
LV
CHI
MIAHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
New Orleans Saints have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in OT. Of 128 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO | 5-5 50% | 6-3 67% | 2-8 20% |
| DET | 4-6 40% | 3-6 33% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
NO 6–8 DET
DET leads · 14 games since 2000 · DET has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3 2023 | Detroit Lions 33 @ New Orleans Saints 28 | DET -4 | DET W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DET +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
NO1st game
DET1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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