Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game
Closing spread
MIN -2.5
✓ MIN W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
GB 21–23 MIN
✓ MIN (57%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenGB -1.5
CloseMIN -2.5
Total44.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGB -1.5
4 → MIN
CloseMIN -2.5
4 pts toward Minnesota Vikings
Total
Open44.5
▲ 2
Close46.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GB -1.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 4 toward MINmodel GB -3
model GB -3
Opened 44.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 2 upmodel 43.5
model 43.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (212 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenGB -1.5
CloseMIN -2.5
Total44.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MIN won 39–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 2.2; 43.8 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-1.5 | 20–23 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-1.5 | 41–10 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-1.5 | 23–20 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 21–13 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 22–37 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-1.5 | 24–27 | L | O43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 15–18 | L | U41.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 24–25 | L | O46.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 26–14 | W | U42.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 18 · close · similar spread |
-3 | 16–19 | L | U51.5 |
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DETHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Minnesota Vikings ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Minnesota Vikings
4 pts (GB -1.5 → MIN -2.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
44.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Green Bay Packers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 214 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB | 4-6 40% | 3-6 33% | 6-4 60% |
| MIN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
GB 31–24 MIN (2 tied)
GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 2025 | Green Bay Packers 3 @ Minnesota Vikings 16 | MIN -13.5 | GB W |
| Nov 23 2025 | Minnesota Vikings 6 @ Green Bay Packers 23 | GB -6.5 | GB W |
| Dec 29 2024 | Green Bay Packers 25 @ Minnesota Vikings 27 | GB -0.5 | MIN W |
| Sep 29 2024 | Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Green Bay Packers 29 | GB -2.5 | MIN W |
| Dec 31 2023 | Green Bay Packers 33 @ Minnesota Vikings 10 | GB -1 | GB W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MIN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
GB1st game
MIN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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