Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Carolina Panthers
Closing spread
CHI -3
✓ CHI W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 96 pts
Model before kickoff
CHI 24–22 CAR
✓ CHI (60%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCHI -2.5
CloseCHI -3
Total44.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCHI -2.5
0.5 → CHI
CloseCHI -3
0.5 pts toward Chicago Bears
Total
Open44.5
▲ 3
Close47.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CHI -2.5 · closed CHI -3 · moved 0.5 toward CHImodel CHI -1
model CHI -1
Opened 44.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 3 upmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (132 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCHI -2.5
CloseCHI -3
Total44.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CHI as a 3-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: CHI won 59–37; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 96 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 3.1; 47.6 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3.5 | 20–9 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 34–24 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–14 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total |
-2.5 | 38–14 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 24–19 | W | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 20–27 | L | U51.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 30–13 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3.5 | 41–22 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 36–24 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-4.5 | 27–19 | W | U49.5 |
LAC
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SF
NYG
LAR
NO
SEA
WSH
GB
IND
PIT
ARI
BAL
MINHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 3
44.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Chicago Bears have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q2. Of 188 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% |
 CAR | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
CHI 9–4 CAR
CHI leads · 13 games since 2002 · CHI has won the last 5 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 2024 | Carolina Panthers 10 @ Chicago Bears 36 | CHI -3.5 | CHI W |
| Nov 9 2023 | Carolina Panthers 13 @ Chicago Bears 16 | CHI -3.5 | CAR W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CAR +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 3 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CHI1st game
CAR1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
TB @ 
CIN
DET
ATL @ 
NE @ 
NYJ @ 
TEN
CLE @ 
JAX
BUF @ 
HOU