Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New York Jets
Closing spread
GB -3.5
✓ NYJ W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 37 pts
Model before kickoff
GB 24–21 NYJ
✓ GB (63%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenGB -6.5
CloseGB -3.5
Total42.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGB -6.5
3 → NYJ
CloseGB -3.5
3 pts toward New York Jets
Total
Open42.5
▲ 2
Close44.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GB -6.5 · closed GB -3.5 · moved 3 toward NYJmodel GB -4
model GB -4
Opened 42.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 2 upmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (149 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenGB -6.5
CloseGB -3.5
Total42.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
GB as a 3.5-point road favorite at NYJ. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Jets ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Jets
3 pts (GB -6.5 → GB -3.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
42.5 → 44.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Green Bay Packers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 4-6 40% | 3-6 33% | 7-3 70% |
 NYJ | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
The series
GB 4–4 NYJ
Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · GB has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
GB+0.9 →+0.7▼ 0.2#13
NYJ−3.3 →−1.9▲ 1.4#27
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
GBLonger bar = better
NYJ#19
Offense
NYJ better ▶#11
#13
Defense
NYJ better ▶#9
−1.0 #23
Turnovers
NYJ better ▶+1.0 #12
67 plays #9
Pace
◀ GB faster63 plays #16
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When GB has the ball| GB off | NYJ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.0 #21 | 10.0 #5 | NYJ |
| Yards / play | 6.25 #6 | 3.98 #3 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.17 #23 | −0.12 #11 | NYJ |
| Success rate | 39% #26 | 45% #18 | NYJ |
When NYJ has the ball| NYJ off | GB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.0 #19 | 39.0 #30 | NYJ |
| Yards / play | 5.83 #11 | 3.92 #2 | GB |
| EPA / play | +0.17 #9 | −0.02 #14 | NYJ |
| Success rate | 50% #6 | 36% #4 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NYJ +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 5 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
GB7d
NYJ7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 130 plays
slowavg 122fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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