Jets @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Jets

1-1 · Power #27

final

Final

Detroit Lions

1-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -7

Push

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 20–27 DET

✓ DET (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -9.5

CloseDET -7

Total44.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -9.5

2.5 → NYJ

CloseDET -7

2.5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open44.5

▲ 5

Close49.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -9.5 · closed DET -7 · moved 2.5 toward NYJmodel DET -7 matches the line

model DET -7 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 51% (108 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 59% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -9.5

CloseDET -7

Total44.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like DET as a 7-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 31–24; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 8; 43.5 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Loose	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
DET LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UU	0-2	0%	1-1
DET OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DET	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 4–4 DET Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · DET has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−1.7▲ 1.6#24

DET+1.6 →+0.6▼ 1.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NYJ

Longer bar = better

DET

#19

Offense

DET better ▶

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#28

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+1.0 #6

68 plays #6

Pace

Even

68 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #19	35.5 #31	NYJ
Yards / play	4.83 #27	5.90 #25	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.17 #28	NYJ
Success rate	44% #17	49% #27	NYJ

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #4	15.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #12	3.98 #2	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.11 #9	−0.17 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #8	38% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

NYJ scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	8.5	3.0	11.5
DET allowed	7.0	6.5	13.5	10.5	8.5	19.0

DET scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	10.5	8.5	19.0
NYJ allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	8.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.