Lions @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff66°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

2-1 · Power #12

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ CAR W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 CAR

✗ DET (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -3.5

Total45.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3

0.5 → DET

CloseDET -3.5

0.5 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open45.5

▲ 7

Close52.5

Up 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3 · closed DET -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward DETmodel DET -1

model DET -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (160 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 27% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -3.5

Total45.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like DET as a 3.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 32–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 7 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 7.

Favorite won

7 of 7100%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 7100%

Above normal · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 3.1; 53.6 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5
Loose	JAX @ IND 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	23–17	W	U48.5
Loose	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4	33–28	W	O48
Loose	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Loose	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	23–19	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLP	0-2-1	0%	0-1	0-1-1
CAR LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
CAR OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 49 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–55.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	2-6-1 25%	8-2 80%
CAR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 4–9 CAR CAR leads · 13 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Carolina Panthers 24 @ Detroit Lions 42	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+0.7▼ 0.9#12

CAR−1.6 →−0.3▲ 1.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DET

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

◀ DET better

#10

#30

Defense

CAR better ▶

#18

+1.0 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #5

66 plays #5

Pace

Even

65 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #2	27.7 #27	DET
Yards / play	5.55 #12	5.49 #20	DET
EPA / play	+0.13 #7	−0.02 #11	Even
Success rate	51% #3	43% #12	DET

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CAR offense

	CAR off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #5	31.7 #32	CAR
Yards / play	6.01 #6	5.79 #27	CAR
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	+0.15 #31	CAR
Success rate	42% #20	48% #28	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.3 #27	6.7 #15	9.0 #23	9.3 #4	10.3 #1	19.7 #2
CAR allowed	4.7 #15	10.0 #29	14.7 #31	4.7 #15	8.3 #23	13.0 #21

CAR scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.7 #6	10.0 #5	15.7 #3	9.0 #5	5.0 #22	14.0 #9
DET allowed	4.7 #15	6.7 #13	11.3 #16	8.0 #31	10.3 #31	18.3 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.