Lions @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

2-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-3 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

DET -4.5

✓ DET W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 28–24 ARI

✓ DET (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -4.5

Total49.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

4 → ARI

CloseDET -4.5

4 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open49.5

▲ 6

Close55.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · closed DET -4.5 · moved 4 toward ARImodel DET -4.5 matches the line

model DET -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 49% (99 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -4.5

Total49.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like DET as a 4.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 66 points went over 55.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 4.5; 47 points a game (usually 44.9). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLPL	0-3-1	0%	0-2	0-2-1
ARI WLWL	2-2	50%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2
ARI UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–58.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	4-6 40%	2-6-1 25%	8-2 80%
ARI	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 9–10 ARI (1 tied) ARI leads · 20 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2024	Detroit Lions 20 @ Arizona Cardinals 13	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+0.5▼ 1.1#11

ARI−1.3 →−1.9▼ 0.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DET

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

◀ DET better

#20

#30

Defense

ARI better ▶

#24

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #7

67 plays #6

Pace

Even

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #4	29.3 #29	DET
Yards / play	5.83 #9	6.14 #30	DET
EPA / play	+0.14 #6	+0.07 #25	DET
Success rate	49% #4	43% #12	DET

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #17	31.8 #31	ARI
Yards / play	4.48 #31	5.89 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	+0.18 #31	ARI
Success rate	46% #11	48% #29	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.5 #29	8.3 #8	10.8 #19	7.8 #5	9.5 #4	17.3 #2
ARI allowed	6.0 #25	6.5 #13	12.5 #21	7.8 #27	9.0 #28	16.8 #30

ARI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.3 #10	5.5 #22	10.8 #19	4.3 #19	6.8 #18	11.0 #18
DET allowed	5.3 #18	7.3 #20	12.5 #21	9.3 #32	8.5 #24	17.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.