49ers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Weather at kickoff56°F9 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

4-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

3-1 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

SEA -3

✓ SF W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 20–23 SEA

✗ SEA (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3.5

0.5 → SF

CloseSEA -3

0.5 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -3 · moved 0.5 toward SFmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (200 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (20 games since 2025)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 3-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 32–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3.4; 47.3 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Very close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs JAX 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–22	L	U51.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Close	GB vs WSH 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	27–18	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWLW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
SEA PWLP	1-1-2	50%	0-0-2	1-1-2

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0
SEA UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 231 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
SEA	9-1 90%	6-2-2 75%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SF 21–31 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 17 2025	San Francisco 49ers 6 @ Seattle Seahawks 41	SEA -7	SEA W
Jan 3 2025	Seattle Seahawks 13 @ San Francisco 49ers 3	SEA -2.5	SEA W
Sep 7 2025	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -1.5	SF W
Nov 17 2024	Seattle Seahawks 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 17	SF -6.5	SEA W
Oct 10 2024	San Francisco 49ers 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 24	SF -3.5	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.6▲ 2.7#4

SEA+3.2 →+4.7▲ 1.5#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ SF better

#11

Defense

SEA better ▶

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

+0.8 #10

57 plays #28

Pace

SEA faster ▶

59 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #2	18.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #1	4.00 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.29 #1	−0.14 #2	Even
Success rate	55% #1	37% #2	Even

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #11	16.0 #3	SF
Yards / play	5.86 #8	4.79 #3	SF
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.02 #18	SEA
Success rate	44% #13	46% #21	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.3 #17	6.8 #14	11.0 #16	10.3 #1	9.3 #6	19.5 #1
SEA allowed	2.5 #7	6.8 #16	9.3 #9	4.3 #13	4.8 #5	9.0 #6

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	3.5 #23	5.8 #20	9.3 #24	7.5 #7	9.5 #4	17.0 #3
SF allowed	0.8 #2	4.8 #8	5.5 #2	1.8 #2	8.8 #26	10.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.