Seahawks @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff53°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

3-2 · Power #1

final

Final

Denver Broncos

3-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -3

✓ DEN W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 22–19 DEN

✗ SEA (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:33

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 12:27 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -2.5

0.5 → SEA

CloseSEA -3

0.5 pts toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -2.5 · closed SEA -3 · moved 0.5 toward SEAmodel SEA -1.5

model SEA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (148 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (21 games since 2025)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 3-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3; 43.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	MIN @ NO 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	23–13	W	U41.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	HOU @ PIT 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	PIT @ CLE 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–27	L	O38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA PWLPL	1-2-2	33%	1-1	1-2-2
DEN LWWLW	3-2	60%	2-0	0-2

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
DEN UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	8-2 80%	6-2-2 75%	5-5 50%
DEN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SEA 7–8 DEN DEN leads · 15 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Denver Broncos 20 @ Seattle Seahawks 26	SEA -6.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA+3.2 →+4.2▲ 1.0#1

DEN+1.2 →+0.5▼ 0.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SEA

Longer bar = better

DEN

#17

Offense

◀ SEA better

#26

Defense

◀ SEA better

#11

+0.4 #16

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #17

59 plays #22

Pace

◀ SEA faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	SEA off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #8	22.2 #13	SEA
Yards / play	5.52 #13	5.23 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	−0.03 #14	DEN
Success rate	41% #22	41% #5	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	DEN off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #26	21.0 #8	SEA
Yards / play	4.69 #26	4.15 #1	SEA
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	−0.13 #2	SEA
Success rate	40% #26	38% #2	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.2 #19	5.8 #20	10.0 #21	8.6 #3	8.2 #10	16.8 #4
DEN allowed	2.8 #9	6.4 #13	9.2 #6	6.8 #25	6.2 #11	13.0 #21

DEN scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.4 #23	1.2 #31	4.6 #31	4.4 #19	10.4 #2	14.8 #6
SEA allowed	3.4 #10	8.2 #23	11.6 #20	3.4 #5	6.0 #9	9.4 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.