Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New York Giants
Weather at kickoff57°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›
1-4 · Power #29
34
▲ winner
Final
@
3-1-1 · Power #22
27
final
Closing spread
NO -1.5
✓ NO W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
NO 23–22 NYG
✓ NO (54%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNYG -2.5
CloseNO -1.5
Total45.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game recap · 1:33

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:44 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

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Market

Open → close
Spread
4 pts toward New Orleans Saints
Total
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened NYG -2.5 · closed NO -1.5 · moved 4 toward NOmodel NYG -2.5
Opened 45.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 1 upmodel 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 55% (110 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNYG -2.5
CloseNO -1.5
Total45.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NONYGOverUnderNONYG
BetMGMMGM-1-105+1-11245.5-11045.5-108-108-102
BetOnline.agBetOnline.agPK-110PK-11046-11046-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-0.5-110+0.5-11045.5-11045.5-110-112-109
BetUSBetUSPK-110PK-11046-11046-110——
BovadaBovada-1-105+1-11546-11046-110-110-110
DraftKingsDK-1.5+105+1.5-12546.5-10546.5-115-108-112
FanDuelFD-1.5+100+1.5-12245.5-11045.5-110-110-108
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-1+101+1-11246-10746-107——
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag+1-110-1-11046-11046-110-104-113

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 1.9; 42.4 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total
-226–20 W U48.5
Very close
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form
-1.514–35 L O43.5
Very close
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation
-2.526–19 W U48.5
Very close
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread
-1.56–31 L U46.5
Close
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation
-0.531–26 W O47.5
Close
2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest
-1.510–20 L U46.5
Close
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation
-1.56–16 L U46.5
Close
2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread
-2.534–3 W U43.5
Close
2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form
-3.545–21 W O48.5
Loose
2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings
-1.521–14 W U44.5
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

New York Giants ATS trend (4-1)
New York Giants have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)
New York Giants 3-0 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
New York Giants 3-1 ATS as an underdog
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
Market moved toward New Orleans Saints
4 pts (NYG -2.5 → NO -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NO−1.2 →−2.9▼ 1.7#28
NYG−1.1 →−1.6▼ 0.5#22
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NO
Longer bar = better
NYG
#19
Offense
Even
#21
#29
Defense
NYG better ▶
#20
−1.2 #32
Turnovers
NYG better ▶
+0.2 #17
67 plays #4
Pace
Even
65 plays #7
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NO has the ball
Even matchup
NO offNYG defEdge
Points / game 23.6 #16 21.2 #10 NYG
Yards / play 4.82 #23 5.60 #23 Even
EPA / play −0.05 #23 +0.04 #22 Even
Success rate 43% #15 46% #26 NO
When NYG has the ball
Advantage: NYG offense
NYG offNO defEdge
Points / game 21.8 #22 30.2 #31 NYG
Yards / play 4.73 #25 5.71 #26 Even
EPA / play −0.02 #17 +0.09 #26 NYG
Success rate 42% #20 50% #31 NYG

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NO scoring against the NYG defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NO scored
1.2
#30
5.4
#21
6.6
#28
8.0
#4
7.8
#11
15.8
#5
NYG allowed
5.4
#20
4.6
#4
10.0
#10
5.6
#22
5.6
#9
11.2
#12
NYG scoring against the NO defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYG scored
3.2
#24
6.4
#16
9.6
#22
6.2
#10
6.0
#20
12.2
#12
NO allowed
6.8
#28
6.6
#14
13.4
#25
7.4
#26
8.0
#22
15.4
#28

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
57° · 1 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NO7d
NYG7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 132 plays
slowavg 124fast