Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New York Giants
Closing spread
NO -1.5
✓ NO W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
NO 23–22 NYG
✓ NO (54%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNYG -2.5
CloseNO -1.5
Total45.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game recap · 1:33
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: game recap
Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:44 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNYG -2.5
4 → NO
CloseNO -1.5
4 pts toward New Orleans Saints
Total
Open45.5
▲ 1
Close46.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened NYG -2.5 · closed NO -1.5 · moved 4 toward NOmodel NYG -2.5
model NYG -2.5
Opened 45.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 1 upmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 55% (110 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNYG -2.5
CloseNO -1.5
Total45.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Books
9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | Under | |||||
| BetMGMMGM | -1-105 | +1-112 | 45.5-110 | 45.5-108 | -108 | -102 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | PK-110 | PK-110 | 46-110 | 46-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -0.5-110 | +0.5-110 | 45.5-110 | 45.5-110 | -112 | -109 |
| BetUSBetUS | PK-110 | PK-110 | 46-110 | 46-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -1-105 | +1-115 | 46-110 | 46-110 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKingsDK | -1.5+105 | +1.5-125 | 46.5-105 | 46.5-115 | -108 | -112 |
| FanDuelFD | -1.5+100 | +1.5-122 | 45.5-110 | 45.5-110 | -110 | -108 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -1+101 | +1-112 | 46-107 | 46-107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +1-110 | -1-110 | 46-110 | 46-110 | -104 | -113 |
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
NO as a 1.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: NO won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 1.9; 42.4 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total |
-2 | 26–20 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form |
-1.5 | 14–35 | L | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 26–19 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread |
-1.5 | 6–31 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation |
-0.5 | 31–26 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest |
-1.5 | 10–20 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 6–16 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread |
-2.5 | 34–3 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form |
-3.5 | 45–21 | W | O48.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings |
-1.5 | 21–14 | W | U44.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
New York Giants ATS trend (4-1)
New York Giants have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)
New York Giants 3-0 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
New York Giants 3-1 ATS as an underdog
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
Market moved toward New Orleans Saints
4 pts (NYG -2.5 → NO -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 233 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | |
| 5-4-1 56% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 3 since 2023
NO 10–6 NYG
NO leads · 16 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 4 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 2025 | New York Giants 14 @ New Orleans Saints 26 | NO -2.5 | NO W |
| Dec 8 2024 | New Orleans Saints 14 @ New York Giants 11 | NO -5.5 | NYG W |
| Dec 17 2023 | New York Giants 6 @ New Orleans Saints 24 | NO -6 | NO W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NO−1.2 →−2.9▼ 1.7#28
NYG−1.1 →−1.6▼ 0.5#22
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5
Longer bar = better
#19
Offense
Even#21
#29
Defense
NYG better ▶#20
−1.2 #32
Turnovers
NYG better ▶+0.2 #17
67 plays #4
Pace
Even65 plays #7
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| NO off | NYG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.6 #16 | 21.2 #10 | NYG |
| Yards / play | 4.82 #23 | 5.60 #23 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.05 #23 | +0.04 #22 | Even |
| Success rate | 43% #15 | 46% #26 | NO |
| NYG off | NO def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.8 #22 | 30.2 #31 | NYG |
| Yards / play | 4.73 #25 | 5.71 #26 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.02 #17 | +0.09 #26 | NYG |
| Success rate | 42% #20 | 50% #31 | NYG |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NO scoring against the NYG defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.2 #30 | 5.4 #21 | 6.6 #28 | 8.0 #4 | 7.8 #11 | 15.8 #5 | |
5.4 #20 | 4.6 #4 | 10.0 #10 | 5.6 #22 | 5.6 #9 | 11.2 #12 |
NYG scoring against the NO defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.2 #24 | 6.4 #16 | 9.6 #22 | 6.2 #10 | 6.0 #20 | 12.2 #12 | |
6.8 #28 | 6.6 #14 | 13.4 #25 | 7.4 #26 | 8.0 #22 | 15.4 #28 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
57° · 1 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NO7d
NYG7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 132 plays
slowavg 124fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

