Jets @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

2-3 · Power #27

final

Final

New England Patriots

3-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -7.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 17–25 NE

✓ NE (76%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -9.5

CloseNE -7.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:22

New York Jets at New England Patriots: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:42 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -9.5

2 → NYJ

CloseNE -7.5

2 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NE -9.5 · closed NE -7.5 · moved 2 toward NYJmodel NE -10.5

model NE -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 60% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -9.5

CloseNE -7.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NYJ	NE	Over	Under	NYJ	NE
BetMGMMGM	+7-102	-7-115	43-110	43-120	+290	-350
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+7-110	-7-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	+290	-362
BetRiversBetRivers	+7-104	-7-118	43-109	43-112	+280	-375
BetUSBetUS	+7-110	-7-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	+280	-350
BovadaBovada	+7-110	-7-110	42.5-105	42.5-115	+280	-360
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-120	-7.5+100	43.5-102	43.5-118	+275	-345
FanDuelFD	+7.5-120	-7.5-102	42.5-118	42.5-104	+275	-340
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+7+101	-7-112	42.5-107	42.5-107	+290	-362
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+7.5-120	-7.5+100	42.5-110	42.5-110	+295	-370

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has a total of 43.5, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is a total of 42.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 7.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 26–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 7; 45.2 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Very close	NE vs CLE 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–13	W	O40.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CHI 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-7	15–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WWPLW	3-1-1	75%	1-1-1	2-1-1
NE PWLWW	3-1-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUOUU	1-4	20%	2-3
NE UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%
NE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYJ 14–43 NE NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2025	New England Patriots 42 @ New York Jets 10	NE -12.5	NE W
Nov 13 2025	New York Jets 14 @ New England Patriots 27	NE -12.5	NE W
Oct 27 2024	New York Jets 22 @ New England Patriots 25	NYJ -7.5	NE W
Sep 19 2024	New England Patriots 3 @ New York Jets 24	NYJ -6.5	NYJ W
Jan 7 2023	New York Jets 17 @ New England Patriots 3	NE -2.5	NYJ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−2.6▲ 0.7#27

NE+1.8 →+3.0▲ 1.2#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

NE better ▶

#13

Defense

Even

#11

+0.6 #12

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−1.0 #29

59 plays #26

Pace

NE faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #28	18.8 #4	NE
Yards / play	4.83 #22	5.18 #12	NE
EPA / play	−0.02 #20	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	43% #16	42% #11	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #20	19.2 #6	NYJ
Yards / play	5.83 #9	4.62 #2	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.06 #5	NYJ
Success rate	45% #13	44% #21	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #27	4.0 #28	6.8 #27	4.6 #18	7.2 #15	11.8 #16
NE allowed	1.4 #2	6.8 #17	8.2 #6	4.0 #6	6.6 #13	10.6 #8

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.6 #8	5.4 #21	11.0 #17	5.4 #13	5.6 #21	11.0 #21
NYJ allowed	2.6 #7	5.2 #9	7.8 #3	2.8 #2	8.0 #22	10.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.