Dolphins @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New York Jets · Division game

Kickoff forecast63°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

MIA 34%

66% NYJ

Spread

NYJ -4.5

open NYJ -2.5

Total

39.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

MIA by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNYJ -2.5

CurrentNYJ -4.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNYJ -2.5

2 → NYJ

NowNYJ -4.5

2 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open41.5

▼ 2

Now39.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -2.5 · now NYJ -4.5 · moved 2 toward NYJmodel NYJ -3.5

model NYJ -3.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNYJ -2.5

CurrentNYJ -4.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MIA	NYJ	Over	Under	MIA	NYJ
BetMGMMGM	+4.5-108	-4.5-110	39-110	39-108	+188	-225
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+4.5-114	-4.5-106	39.5-105	39.5-115	+185	-217
BetRiversBetRivers	+4.5-112	-4.5-110	39.5-106	39.5-117	+180	-235
BetUSBetUS	+4.5-115	-4.5-105	39.5-105	39.5-115	+183	-215
BovadaBovada	+4.5-115	-4.5-105	39-110	39-110	+180	-220
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-105	-4.5-115	39.5-108	39.5-112	+185	-225
FanDuelFD	+4.5-104	-4.5-118	39.5-106	39.5-114	+194	-235
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+4.5-109	-4.5-101	39.5-102	39.5-113	+185	-217
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	39-110	39-110	+184	-230

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:34 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	MIA	NYJ	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+3.5-120	-3.5+100	29.5+475	29.5-750
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-110	-3-110	19.5-115	19.5-105
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-120	-3.5-104	19.5-118	19.5-105
BetUSBetUS	+3-110	-3-110	19.5-115	19.5-105
BovadaBovada	+3-110	-3-110	19.5-115	19.5-105
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-118	-3.5-102	19.5-118	19.5-102
FanDuelFD	+3.5-120	-3.5+100	19.5-115	19.5-105

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

MIA +4.5

NYJ -4.5

Bets47% 53%

Money55% 45%

Total

Over 39.5Under 39.5

Bets70% 30%

Money70% 30%

Winner

MIA

NYJ

Bets12% 88%

Money16% 84%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 4.7; 43.6 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	23–9	W	U37.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5
Close	NO vs NYJ 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7	29–6	W	U39.5
Close	NYJ vs CLE 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-2.5	17–12	W	U38.5
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	PIT vs SEA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	17–31	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs NE	L10–38LO
Nov 8	vs DET	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ IND	L8–33LU

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs LV	L12–16LU
Nov 8	@ KC	L20–23
Nov 15	vs BUF	L8–35LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIA 28–26 NYJ MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Sep 29 2025	New York Jets 21 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Jan 5 2024	Miami Dolphins 20 @ New York Jets 32	NYJ -2.5	NYJ W
Dec 8 2024	New York Jets 26 @ Miami Dolphins 32	MIA -6.5	NYJ W
Dec 17 2023	New York Jets 0 @ Miami Dolphins 30	MIA -7	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIA

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#27

Offense

NYJ better ▶

#21

#26

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#11

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.7 #8

55 plays #31

Pace

NYJ faster ▶

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	5.11 #19	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	38% #29	44% #23	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	26.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.50 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.11 #29	NYJ
Success rate	44% #15	49% #30	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.