Bills @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New York Jets · Division game

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

BUF 74%

26% NYJ

Spread

BUF -7

Total

46.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

NYJ by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -7

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 42% (53 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -7

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 6.9; 46.4 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ MIN 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	10–23	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Very close	SEA @ ATL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	37–9	W	O44.5
Very close	BUF @ CAR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	40–9	W	O48.5
Very close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Very close	DET @ CHI 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	34–17	W	O47.5
Close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Close	KC @ GB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	19–27	L	O44
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	3-1-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs MIA	L13–30LU
Nov 26	vs KC	W28–21WU
Dec 6	@ NE	L26–29LO

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ LAC	L6–27LU
Nov 29	@ MIA	L10–34LO
Dec 13	vs DEN	L11–13WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BUF 29–25 NYJ BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	New York Jets 8 @ Buffalo Bills 35	BUF -13.5	BUF W
Sep 14 2025	Buffalo Bills 30 @ New York Jets 10	BUF -5.5	BUF W
Dec 29 2024	New York Jets 14 @ Buffalo Bills 40	BUF -10.5	BUF W
Oct 14 2024	Buffalo Bills 23 @ New York Jets 20	BUF -1.5	BUF W
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUF

Longer bar = better

NYJ

Offense

◀ BUF better

#21

#28

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#11

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.7 #8

60 plays #25

Pace

Even

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.3 #7	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.80 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.05 #8	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	44% #23	BUF

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	28.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.64 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.13 #30	NYJ
Success rate	44% #15	47% #27	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.