Texans @ Browns: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Cleveland Browns

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

HOU 66%

34% CLE

Spread

HOU -4.5

Total

38.5

model 40

Spread edge

HOU by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -4.5

Total38.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now38.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -4.5

Total38.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 4.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 4.1; 38.8 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Very close	SF @ CLE 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	26–8	W	U35.5
Very close	JAX @ TEN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–28	L	O41
Very close	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Very close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	11–34	L	O39
Very close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Very close	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	36–22	W	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	4-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 249 games with totals 35.5–41.5, 53% went over; 5% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs IND	L17–19LU
Nov 29	vs BAL	W44–10WO
Dec 6	@ PIT	W30–6WU

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs LV	W24–10WU
Dec 6	vs CIN	W20–18WU
Dec 13	vs ATL	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 8–7 CLE HOU leads · 15 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 13 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Houston Texans 45	CLE -2.5	HOU W
Dec 24 2023	Cleveland Browns 36 @ Houston Texans 22	CLE -3	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HOU

Longer bar = better

CLE

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#27

#15

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

0.0 #17

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ HOU faster

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.03 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	43% #16	42% #10	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	CLE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	23.8 #20	HOU
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	0.00 #18	HOU
Success rate	40% #26	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

CLE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.