Dolphins @ Colts: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Indianapolis Colts

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

MIA 28%

72% IND

Spread

IND -6.5

Total

47.5

model 46

Spread edge

MIA by 1

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -6.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowIND -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -6.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 6.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 6.7; 50.2 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Very close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Very close	IND vs TEN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	20–26	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ BUF	W30–13WU
Nov 29	vs NYJ	W34–10WO
Dec 6	@ DEN	W70–20

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ HOU	W19–17WU
Nov 29	vs NYG	L33–45LO
Dec 13	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIA 8–11 IND IND leads · 19 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Miami Dolphins 8 @ Indianapolis Colts 33	IND -1.5	IND W
Oct 20 2024	Miami Dolphins 10 @ Indianapolis Colts 16	IND -3.5	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIA

Longer bar = better

IND

#27

Offense

IND better ▶

#20

#26

Defense

Even

#25

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−1.3 #32

55 plays #31

Pace

IND faster ▶

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	27.3 #27	IND
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.97 #28	MIA
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	38% #29	44% #19	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	26.4 #24	IND
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.50 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	+0.11 #29	IND
Success rate	42% #19	49% #30	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

IND scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.