Dolphins @ Bills: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

MIA 15%

85% BUF

Spread

BUF -11.5

Total

47.5

model 49

Spread edge

BUF by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -11.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 54% (59 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -11.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as an 11.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 11.7; 51.7 points a game (usually 47.5). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs ARI 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	31–35	L	O48
Very close	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Close	JAX vs TEN 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs TEN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	37–24	W	O44.5
Close	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-11.5	31–21	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs NYJ	W34–10WO
Dec 6	@ DEN	W70–20
Dec 13	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs KC	W28–21WU
Dec 6	@ NE	L26–29LO
Dec 13	@ GB	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIA 20–35 BUF BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2025	Buffalo Bills 13 @ Miami Dolphins 30	BUF -8.5	MIA W
Sep 18 2025	Miami Dolphins 21 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -11.5	MIA W
Nov 3 2024	Miami Dolphins 27 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -6.5	MIA W
Sep 12 2024	Buffalo Bills 31 @ Miami Dolphins 10	MIA -2.5	BUF W
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MIA

Longer bar = better

BUF

#27

Offense

BUF better ▶

#26

Defense

Even

#28

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #26

55 plays #31

Pace

BUF faster ▶

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	28.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.64 #25	MIA
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.13 #30	Even
Success rate	38% #29	47% #27	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	26.4 #24	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	5.50 #21	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	+0.11 #29	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	49% #30	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.