Saints @ Bears: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Chicago Bears

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

NO 27%

73% CHI

Spread

CHI -6.5

Total

46.5

model 49

Spread edge

CHI by 2.5

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -6.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -6.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 6.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 6.5; 46.2 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Very close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	KC vs CIN 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	25–17	W	U46
Close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ CIN	No meeting since 2023
Dec 6	vs GB	L0–34LU
Dec 13	@ CAR	W20–17WU

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	@ DET	L16–19LU
Dec 6	vs JAX	W35–16WO
Dec 13	@ MIA	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NO 11–6 CHI NO leads · 17 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2025	New Orleans Saints 14 @ Chicago Bears 26	CHI -3.5	CHI W
Nov 5 2023	Chicago Bears 17 @ New Orleans Saints 24	NO -6.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

CHI

#19

Offense

CHI better ▶

#11

#29

Defense

CHI better ▶

#17

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

−0.1 #18

67 plays #5

Pace

CHI faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	20.4 #8	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #23	6.25 #32	NO
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	0.00 #19	Even
Success rate	42% #20	42% #8	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	29.7 #31	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.84 #27	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.07 #25	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	49% #31	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.