Jaguars @ Giants: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New York Giants

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Giants

3-2-1 · Power #22

projected

JAX 57%

43% NYG

Spread

JAX -1.5

Total

46.5

model 46

Spread edge

JAX by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowJAX -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2; 45.8 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Very close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	CHI @ GB 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	7–31	L	U46.5
Very close	SEA @ JAX 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–12	W	U47.5
Very close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
NYG LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
NYG UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-2-1

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NYG	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs TEN	W41–7WO
Dec 6	@ CHI	L16–35LO
Dec 14	vs PIT	W20–10WU

New York Giants

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ IND	W45–33WO
Dec 6	vs SF	L24–34LO
Dec 13	@ SEA	W29–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 3–4 NYG NYG leads · 7 games since 2000 · NYG has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JAX

Longer bar = better

NYG

Offense

◀ JAX better

#19

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#21

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.3 #21

60 plays #23

Pace

NYG faster ▶

66 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	23.3 #19	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.43 #20	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.02 #21	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	44% #22	JAX

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	NYG off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.03 #20	5.82 #26	NYG
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	42% #18	43% #13	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
NYG allowed	4.5 #15	5.5 #9	10.0 #11	7.5 #28	5.8 #8	13.3 #23

NYG scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	5.8 #21	9.7 #20	5.2 #13	7.8 #13	13.0 #9
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.