Jets @ Chargers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Los Angeles Chargers

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

NYJ 22%

78% LAC

Spread

LAC -9.5

Total

41.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

NYJ by 9

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -9.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -9.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 9.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 8.6; 45.7 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JAX vs CIN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-10	31–34	L	O41
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Loose	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Loose	KC vs HOU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-9.5	23–14	L	U41.5
Loose	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	LAC vs CHI 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.5	30–13	W	U46
Loose	NO vs NYJ 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	29–6	W	U39.5
Loose	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	DEN vs NE 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	23–26	L	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Los Angeles Chargers 78%

Projected NYJ 16 – LAC 25 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

LAC -0.5

Market LAC -9.5

Against the spread

No lean

No lean: a gap of 7+ points usually means news the model can’t see (leans run 2.5–7 points).

Total

No lean

Model 40.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from LAC’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadLAC rating edge+0.1+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+0.2+Travel−1.5=Model marginLAC by 0.6

TotalScoring ratings40.6=Model total40.6

Signals

The data signal, and 6 trends and market moves behind it

Strong New York Jets ATS trend

Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 22-16 (58%) in our 2023–25 backtest.

Slight Under trend

Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

New York Jets ATS trend (4-1-1)

New York Jets have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)

New York Jets 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog

Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)

Los Angeles Chargers ATS struggles (0-5-1)

Los Angeles Chargers have covered only 0% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Chargers home ATS weakness (0-3)

Weak against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 71-65 (52%)

Both teams trending Under (9-3 combined)

Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 18-19 (49%)

New York Jets on a cross-country trip

New York Jets cross 3 time zones (2,449 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-1-1	3-1-1
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ MIA	L10–34LO
Dec 13	vs DEN	L11–13WU
Dec 20	@ ARI	L6–31LU

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs NE	L3–16LU
Dec 6	@ TB	L17–40LO
Dec 13	@ LV	L14–26LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 5–7 LAC LAC leads · 12 games since 2002 · LAC has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 6 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 27 @ New York Jets 6	LAC -2	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NYJ

Longer bar = better

LAC

#21

Offense

◀ NYJ better

#30

#11

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#17

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.8 #29

59 plays #27

Pace

LAC faster ▶

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	25.2 #22	LAC
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.40 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.04 #11	LAC
Success rate	44% #15	44% #17	Even

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	LAC off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	4.64 #26	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	36% #31	44% #23	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

LAC scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.