Jets @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

NYJ 45%

55% MIA

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

40.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

NYJ by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -1.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIA -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now40.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -1.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 1.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.1; 37.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs CAR 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	6–13	L	U39.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	10–24	L	U40.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Close	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Close	TEN vs HOU 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	14–23	L	O36.5
Close	LV vs GB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	17–13	W	U43.5
Close	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	NO vs NYG 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	26–14	W	U42.5
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-1-1	3-1-1
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 371 games with totals 37.5–43.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs DEN	L11–13WU
Dec 20	@ ARI	L6–31LU
Dec 27	vs NE	L19–26WO

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ DEN	W70–20
Dec 13	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ GB	L17–30LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYJ 26–28 MIA MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Sep 29 2025	New York Jets 21 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Jan 5 2024	Miami Dolphins 20 @ New York Jets 32	NYJ -2.5	NYJ W
Dec 8 2024	New York Jets 26 @ Miami Dolphins 32	MIA -6.5	NYJ W
Dec 17 2023	New York Jets 0 @ Miami Dolphins 30	MIA -7	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NYJ

Longer bar = better

MIA

#21

Offense

◀ NYJ better

#27

#11

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#26

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.8 #28

59 plays #27

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	26.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.50 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.11 #29	NYJ
Success rate	44% #15	49% #30	NYJ

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	5.11 #19	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	38% #29	44% #23	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.