Giants @ Colts: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Indianapolis Colts

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

3-2-1 · Power #22

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

NYG 41%

59% IND

Spread

IND -2.5

Total

47.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -2.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowIND -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -2.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 2.8; 46.4 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Very close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Very close	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	NYJ vs DAL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	22–37	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	34–14	W	O45
Very close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	HOU vs DAL 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	30–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	3-2
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-2-1
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Giants

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs SF	L24–34LO
Dec 13	@ SEA	W29–20WO
Dec 20	vs CLE	W21–15WU

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ TEN	L20–26LO
Dec 27	vs CIN	L14–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYG 3–5 IND IND leads · 8 games since 1999 · NYG has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Indianapolis Colts 33 @ New York Giants 45	IND -7.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NYG

Longer bar = better

IND

#19

Offense

Even

#20

#21

Defense

◀ NYG better

#25

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

◀ NYG better

−1.3 #32

66 plays #8

Pace

Even

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	27.3 #27	NYG
Yards / play	5.03 #20	5.97 #28	NYG
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.07 #26	NYG
Success rate	42% #18	44% #19	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	23.3 #19	IND
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.43 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	42% #19	44% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	5.8 #21	9.7 #20	5.2 #13	7.8 #13	13.0 #9
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

IND scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
NYG allowed	4.5 #15	5.5 #9	10.0 #11	7.5 #28	5.8 #8	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.