Colts @ Texans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Thu, Nov 19, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

IND 31%

69% HOU

Spread

HOU -5.5

Total

45.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -5.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -5.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 5.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 5.4; 47 points a game (usually 46). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs ATL 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	28–29	L	O43.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	26–3	W	U44
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	SEA vs WSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	29–26	L	O44
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Very close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs NYG	L33–45LO
Dec 13	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ TEN	L20–26LO

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs BAL	W44–10WO
Dec 6	@ PIT	W30–6WU
Dec 13	@ WSH	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

IND 34–15 HOU (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2026	Houston Texans 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 19	HOU -1.5	IND W
Jan 4 2025	Indianapolis Colts 30 @ Houston Texans 38	HOU -9.5	IND W
Nov 30 2025	Houston Texans 20 @ Indianapolis Colts 16	IND -3.5	HOU W
Oct 27 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Houston Texans 23	HOU -4.5	IND W
Sep 8 2024	Houston Texans 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	HOU -3.5	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

IND

Longer bar = better

HOU

#20

Offense

HOU better ▶

#14

#25

Defense

HOU better ▶

#15

−1.3 #32

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.5 #11

67 plays #6

Pace

◀ IND faster

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	23.8 #20	IND
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	0.00 #18	Even
Success rate	42% #19	41% #6	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	27.3 #27	HOU
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.97 #28	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.07 #26	HOU
Success rate	43% #16	44% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.