Ravens @ Panthers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Carolina Panthers

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

BAL 65%

35% CAR

Spread

BAL -4.5

Total

46.5

model 49

Spread edge

CAR by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -4.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -4.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 4.2; 56 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF @ IND 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	48–27	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Very close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Very close	JAX @ IND 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	23–17	W	U48.5
Very close	BUF @ HOU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	19–23	L	U44.5
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Very close	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	33–28	W	O48
Very close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Very close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Very close	KC @ DEN 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	19–22	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	2-1	1-3-1
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ HOU	L10–44LO
Dec 13	vs TB	W41–31WO
Dec 20	@ PIT	L24–26LO

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ TB	L14–16WU
Dec 6	@ MIN	L13–21
Dec 13	vs NO	L17–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 3–3 CAR Series tied · 6 games since 2002 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BAL

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

◀ BAL better

#17

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

CAR better ▶

+0.6 #9

61 plays #21

Pace

CAR faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	24.6 #21	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.38 #18	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.01 #17	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	42% #12	BAL

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	22.0 #15	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.04 #12	CAR
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.03 #14	CAR
Success rate	44% #14	42% #9	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

CAR scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.