Bengals @ Commanders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Mon, Nov 23, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Washington Commanders

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

CIN 55%

45% WSH

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

52.5

model 49.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 1.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 2.3; 46.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI @ ATL 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	31–23	W	O50.5
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	CHI @ CIN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O51.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–0	W	U51.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Close	DAL @ GB 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	13–23	L	U54.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	ATL @ ARI 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	26–19	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1

In 108 games with totals 49.5–55.5, 52% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs NO	No meeting since 2023
Dec 6	@ CLE	L18–20LU
Dec 13	vs KC	L25–26WO

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ ARI	W42–14WO
Dec 6	@ TEN	W42–19WO
Dec 13	vs HOU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 3–2 WSH (1 tied) CIN leads · 6 games since 2004 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2024	Washington Commanders 38 @ Cincinnati Bengals 33	CIN -7.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

WSH

#10

Offense

◀ CIN better

#19

#17

Defense

◀ CIN better

#26

+0.4 #12

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+1.0 #3

62 plays #17

Pace

WSH faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	28.7 #29	CIN
Yards / play	5.49 #12	5.58 #22	CIN
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.07 #24	CIN
Success rate	47% #8	48% #29	CIN

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	21.8 #14	CIN
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.61 #23	WSH
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	41% #21	43% #14	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

WSH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.