Buccaneers @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Detroit Lions

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

TB 33%

67% DET

Spread

DET -4.5

Total

49.5

model 50

Spread edge

DET by 3

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 4.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 5.4; 52.7 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs CHI 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–25	L	O48.5
Very close	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	DET vs TB 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-6	31–23	W	O50
Close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-3
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs CAR	W16–14LU
Dec 6	vs LAC	W40–17WO
Dec 13	@ BAL	L31–41LO

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs CHI	W19–16WU
Dec 6	@ ATL	W20–6
Dec 13	vs TEN	W52–14WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

TB 11–10 DET TB leads · 21 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Detroit Lions 24	DET -6.5	DET W
Sep 15 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ Detroit Lions 16	DET -7.5	TB W
Jan 21 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -6	DET W
Oct 15 2023	Detroit Lions 20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6	DET -3.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

DET

#27

Offense

DET better ▶

Defense

◀ TB better

#28

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.8 #5

63 plays #13

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	29.6 #30	TB
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.63 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	+0.15 #31	Even
Success rate	39% #27	48% #28	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	23.0 #17	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.01 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.09 #4	Even
Success rate	49% #3	41% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.