Bears @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Thu, Nov 26, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

Thu 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

CHI 42%

58% DET

Spread

DET -2.5

Total

52.5

model 53.5

Spread edge

CHI by 2.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -2.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -2.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 2.7; 49 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	44–22	W	O54.5
Very close	DET vs LAR 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–23	L	U53
Very close	CHI vs NE 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Very close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	JAX vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	24–27	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-0
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 108 games with totals 49.5–55.5, 52% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs JAX	W35–16WO
Dec 13	@ MIA	No meeting since 2023
Dec 19	@ BUF	No meeting since 2023

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ ATL	W20–6
Dec 13	vs TEN	W52–14WO
Dec 20	@ MIN	L10–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CHI 28–26 DET CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Detroit Lions 19 @ Chicago Bears 16	CHI -3	DET W
Sep 14 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Detroit Lions 52	DET -6.5	DET W
Dec 22 2024	Detroit Lions 34 @ Chicago Bears 17	DET -6.5	DET W
Nov 28 2024	Chicago Bears 20 @ Detroit Lions 23	DET -10	CHI W
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CHI

Longer bar = better

DET

#11

Offense

DET better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ CHI better

#28

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.8 #5

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	29.6 #30	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.63 #24	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.15 #31	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	48% #28	CHI

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	20.4 #8	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	6.25 #32	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	0.00 #19	DET
Success rate	49% #3	42% #8	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.