Falcons @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Minnesota Vikings

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

ATL 34%

66% MIN

Spread

MIN -4.5

Total

43.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

MIN by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -4.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIN -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -4.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 4.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 4.2; 43.9 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs IND 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–13	W	O43.5
Very close	LAR vs PIT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U43.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	NE vs ATL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	24–23	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-3
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs DET	L6–20
Dec 13	@ CLE	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ WSH	W34–27WO

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs CAR	W21–13
Dec 10	@ NE	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs DET	W23–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ATL 6–9 MIN MIN leads · 15 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	Atlanta Falcons 22 @ Minnesota Vikings 6	MIN -3.5	ATL W
Dec 8 2024	Atlanta Falcons 21 @ Minnesota Vikings 42	MIN -5.5	MIN W
Nov 5 2023	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Atlanta Falcons 28	ATL -4.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ATL

Longer bar = better

MIN

#15

Offense

◀ ATL better

#27

#15

Defense

MIN better ▶

−1.2 #31

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #1

60 plays #24

Pace

MIN faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	ATL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.74 #10	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	44% #13	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	MIN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	25.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.02 #16	ATL
Success rate	36% #32	42% #11	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.