Chiefs @ Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

KC 66%

34% ATL

Spread

KC -4.5

Total

45.5

model 46

Spread edge

KC by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowKC -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 4.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 4.4; 45.9 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ JAX 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	23–7	W	U42.5
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	KC @ GB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6	19–27	L	O44
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	NE @ DEN 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–7	L	U43.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-3

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs ARI	No meeting since 2023
Nov 26	@ BUF	L21–28LU
Dec 3	@ LAR	No meeting since 2023

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ MIN	W22–6WU
Dec 6	vs DET	L6–20
Dec 13	@ CLE	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 4–3 ATL KC leads · 7 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 22 @ Atlanta Falcons 17	KC -3.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ KC better

#15

Defense

◀ KC better

#15

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−1.2 #31

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ KC faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	25.5 #23	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.03 #11	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.02 #16	KC
Success rate	49% #2	42% #11	KC

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	ATL off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.74 #10	4.81 #6	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	44% #13	38% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.