Chiefs @ Bills: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Thu, Nov 26, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Thu 8:20 PM ET

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

KC 42%

58% BUF

Spread

BUF -2.5

Total

50.5

model 51

Spread edge

KC by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -2.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now50.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -2.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 2.7; 49.4 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Very close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs JAX 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–22	L	U51.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Very close	MIA vs DAL 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	22–20	W	U48.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3	30–24	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

In 221 games with totals 47.5–53.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ LAR	No meeting since 2023
Dec 13	@ CIN	W26–25LO
Dec 21	vs NE	W27–17PO

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ NE	L26–29LO
Dec 13	@ GB	No meeting since 2023
Dec 19	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

KC 11–12 BUF BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Buffalo Bills 28	KC -2.5	BUF W
Jan 26 2024	Buffalo Bills 29 @ Kansas City Chiefs 32	KC -2.5	KC W
Nov 17 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Jan 21 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -2.5	KC W
Dec 10 2023	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ KC better

#28

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.5 #26

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ KC faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	28.5 #28	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.64 #25	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	+0.13 #30	KC
Success rate	49% #2	47% #27	KC

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	16.6 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.81 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.10 #3	Even
Success rate	49% #4	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.