Patriots @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff56°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

4-2 · Power #7

final

Final

Chicago Bears

4-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3

✓ CHI W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 22–25 CHI

✓ CHI (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseCHI -3

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:21

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 22, 11:27 PM ET).

Transcript

Final: Chicago Bears 30, New England Patriots 24. Here’s what decided it. The Bears struck first, a 5-play, 29-yard field goal drive. The Patriots’ field goal with 37 seconds left made it 30 to 24. Second quarter, 14 seconds left. Williams finds Burden for a 24-yard touchdown. That lifted the Bears’ win probability by 14 points. Third quarter, 9:41 left. Williams finds Loveland for a 12-yard touchdown. That lifted the Bears’ win probability by 13 points. Fourth quarter, 1:34 left. Santos hits a 58-yard field goal. That lifted the Bears’ win probability by 19 points. Chicago Bears led 20 to 14 at the half. Chicago Bears won the first quarter, 10 to 0. Chicago Bears out-gained New England Patriots 405 yards to 380. Chicago Bears won the turnover battle, 0 to 1. Before kickoff, our model had Chicago Bears winning 25 to 22. That pick was right. It projected 47 total points; they scored 54. Chicago Bears was favored by 3, and Chicago Bears covered by 3. With 54 points, the game went over the total of 50.5. The model’s side against the spread, New England Patriots, did not cover. In our power ratings, New England Patriots drops from 6th to 8th, and Chicago Bears holds at 4th. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

1.5 → CHI

CloseCHI -3

1.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed CHI -3 · moved 1.5 toward CHImodel NE -2.5

model NE -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (203 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (23 games since 2025)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseCHI -3

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NE	CHI	Over	Under	NE	CHI
BetMGMMGM	+3-110	-3-108	50.5-112	50.5-105	+130	-155
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-105	-3-115	50.5-115	50.5-105	+142	-162
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-110	-3-110	50.5-113	50.5-108	+128	-159
BetUSBetUS	+3-105	-3-115	51-110	51-110	+138	-160
BovadaBovada	+3-110	-3-110	51-110	51-110	+140	-165
DraftKingsDK	+3-112	-3-108	50.5-120	50.5+100	+130	-155
FanDuelFD	+3-115	-3-105	50.5-115	50.5-105	+134	-158
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-102	-3-108	50.5-113	50.5-102	+142	-162
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+3-110	-3-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+133	-157

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	NE	CHI	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-108	-2.5-110	35.5+450	35.5-700
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+2.5-108	-2.5-112	26-110	26-110
BetRiversBetRivers	+1.5-110	-1.5-113	25.5-117	25.5-107
BetUSBetUS	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	26-110	26-110
BovadaBovada	+2.5-105	-2.5-115	26.5-105	26.5-115
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-108	-2.5-112	26.5-102	26.5-118
FanDuelFD	+1.5-110	-1.5-110	24.5-105	24.5-115

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at kickoff

Spread

NE +3

CHI -3

Bets72% 28%

Money71% 29%

Winner

CHI

Bets42% 58%

Money60% 40%

Money is 18 pts ahead of bets on NE

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before kickoff. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3; 52.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Close	JAX vs NE 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	35–6	W	U46.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLWWL	3-2-1	60%	1-1-1	1-1-1
CHI LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	3-3	50%	4-2
CHI UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 110 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
CHI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 6–3 CHI NE leads · 9 games since 2000 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	New England Patriots 19 @ Chicago Bears 3	CHI -6.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.9▲ 1.1#7

CHI+0.4 →+3.0▲ 2.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

CHI

#12

Offense

Even

#13

#14

Defense

Even

#14

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

−0.3 #19

65 plays #9

Pace

CHI faster ▶

73 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #18	19.8 #6	CHI
Yards / play	5.80 #8	6.03 #31	NE
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	45% #12	41% #5	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #12	18.8 #5	NE
Yards / play	5.31 #16	5.22 #16	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	−0.01 #18	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	43% #16	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #16	12.0 #15	4.5 #17	6.2 #21	10.7 #23
CHI allowed	2.8 #7	7.3 #21	10.2 #14	3.2 #5	6.5 #11	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.5 #3	6.7 #15	14.2 #6	6.3 #10	4.5 #28	10.8 #22
NE allowed	1.7 #2	5.7 #11	7.3 #3	5.0 #19	6.5 #11	11.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.