49ers @ Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

SF 60%

40% ATL

Spread

SF -2.5

open SF -4.5

Total

49.5

model 47

Spread edge

SF by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSF -4.5

CurrentSF -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSF -4.5

2 → ATL

NowSF -2.5

2 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Now49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened SF -4.5 · now SF -2.5 · moved 2 toward ATLmodel SF -6.5

model SF -6.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (187 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSF -4.5

CurrentSF -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SF	ATL	Over	Under	SF	ATL
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	50-108	50-110	-150	+125
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-117	+2.5-103	50-107	50-113	-149	+129
BetRiversBetRivers	-3-106	+3-115	49.5-114	49.5-107	-159	+132
BetUSBetUS	-2-120	+2+100	50-105	50-115	-150	+129
BovadaBovada	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	50-110	50-110	-150	+130
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	49.5-110	49.5-110	-148	+124
FanDuelFD	-2.5-120	+2.5-102	49.5-115	49.5-105	-146	+124
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-113	+2.5+102	50-104	50-110	-149	+129
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	50-110	50-110	-145	+118

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	SF	ATL	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-110	+2.5-108	34.5+450	34.5-650
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-112	+1.5-112	24.5-110	24.5-113
FanDuelFD	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	24.5+100	24.5-120

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

SF -2.5

ATL +2.5

Bets71% 29%

Money52% 49%

Money is 20 pts ahead of bets on ATL +2.5

Winner

ATL

Bets92% 8%

Money79% 21%

Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on ATL

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 2.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.9; 52.4 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	BUF @ ATL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	14–24	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Close	SEA @ WSH 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	38–14	W	O47.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	IND @ PIT 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–27	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-2
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-3

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs LV	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ DAL	W30–24WO
Nov 22	vs MIN	L17–23LU

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ TB	W29–28WO
Nov 8	vs CIN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs KC	L17–22LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 9–9 ATL Series tied · 18 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2025	Atlanta Falcons 10 @ San Francisco 49ers 20	ATL -1.5	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

ATL−0.6 →−1.1▼ 0.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ SF better

#15

Defense

◀ SF better

#15

+0.2 #16

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−1.2 #31

57 plays #29

Pace

ATL faster ▶

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	25.5 #23	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	5.03 #11	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.02 #16	SF
Success rate	53% #1	42% #11	SF

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	ATL off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.74 #10	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	44% #13	43% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.