Raiders @ 49ers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at San Francisco 49ers

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

LV 22%

78% SF

Spread

SF -8.5

Total

46.5

model 48

Spread edge

SF by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -8.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSF -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 42% (79 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -8.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as an 8.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 8.5; 50.9 points a game (usually 47). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs MIN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	24–27	L	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs NE 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	20–23	L	U48.5
Close	DAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	41–35	L	O47.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs HOU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-10	34–10	W	P44
Close	BUF vs DEN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	22–24	L	U47
Close	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-7	33–15	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs SEA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 22	@ DEN	L17–24WO
Nov 29	@ CLE	L10–24LU

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ DAL	W30–24WO
Nov 22	vs MIN	L17–23LU
Nov 29	vs SEA	W32–29WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 2–5 SF SF leads · 7 games since 2000 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

SF better ▶

#26

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #16

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LV faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	LV off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	18.3 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #16	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	43% #17	43% #16	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	27.0 #26	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	5.99 #29	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.03 #22	SF
Success rate	53% #1	45% #26	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

SF scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.