49ers @ Cowboys: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Dallas Cowboys

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

SF 47%

53% DAL

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

52.5

model 51

Spread edge

SF by 6.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.3; 49.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	DAL vs WSH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	44–22	W	O54.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	CIN vs JAX 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–22	L	U51.5
Loose	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · loose · similar total	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Loose	JAX vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-0
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4

In 108 games with totals 49.5–55.5, 52% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs MIN	L17–23LU
Nov 29	vs SEA	W32–29WO
Dec 6	@ NYG	W34–24WO

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs TEN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 26	vs PHI	W24–21WU
Dec 7	@ SEA	W41–35LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SF 7–7 DAL Series tied · 14 games since 2000 · SF has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Dallas Cowboys 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 30	SF -5.5	SF W
Oct 8 2023	Dallas Cowboys 10 @ San Francisco 49ers 42	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ SF better

#11

Defense

◀ SF better

#30

+0.2 #16

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.7 #27

57 plays #29

Pace

DAL faster ▶

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	26.5 #25	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	6.04 #31	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.16 #32	SF
Success rate	53% #1	49% #32	SF

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.49 #13	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.06 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #9	43% #16	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

DAL scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.