Vikings vs 49ers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 11 · Neutral site

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

MIN 37%

63% SF

Spread

SF -3.5

Total

46.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

SF by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -3.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSF -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -3.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like SF as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against MIN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 3.4; 48.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Close	SEA vs NE 2025 · Postseason · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	29–13	W	U45.5
Close	MIN vs NYJ 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	JAX vs HOU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	31–34	L	O42.5
Close	SF vs KC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings	-2	22–25	L	P47
Loose	IND vs ATL 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	31–25	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	—	2-0
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-2

Venue/role: MIN neutral, as underdog; SF neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs ATL	L6–22LU
Dec 6	vs CAR	W21–13
Dec 10	@ NE	No meeting since 2023

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs SEA	W32–29WO
Dec 6	@ NYG	W34–24WO
Dec 13	vs LAR	W27–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIN 8–4 SF MIN leads · 12 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Minnesota Vikings 23	SF -3.5	MIN W
Oct 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Minnesota Vikings 22	SF -6.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MIN

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

SF better ▶

Defense

◀ MIN better

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.2 #16

61 plays #20

Pace

◀ MIN faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	MIN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	4.61 #27	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	36% #32	43% #16	SF

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	12.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #3	4.62 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.21 #1	Even
Success rate	53% #1	33% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

SF scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.