Titans @ Cowboys: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Dallas Cowboys

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

TEN 27%

73% DAL

Spread

DAL -6.5

Total

48.5

model 46

Spread edge

DAL by 3

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -6.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -6.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 6.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.7; 47.7 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5
Very close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Very close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	20–26	L	O43.5
Close	CIN vs CLE 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	18–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ JAX	L7–41LO
Dec 6	vs WSH	L19–42LO
Dec 13	@ DET	L14–52LO

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs PHI	W24–21WU
Dec 7	@ SEA	W41–35LO
Dec 20	@ LAR	W43–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 3–4 DAL DAL leads · 7 games since 2000 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEN

Longer bar = better

DAL

#29

Offense

DAL better ▶

#11

#17

Defense

◀ TEN better

#30

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #27

53 plays #32

Pace

DAL faster ▶

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	26.5 #25	DAL
Yards / play	4.46 #30	6.04 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.16 #32	Even
Success rate	40% #24	49% #32	TEN

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	21.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #13	5.21 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.04 #23	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	43% #15	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

DAL scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.