Jaguars @ Titans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

JAX 62%

38% TEN

Spread

JAX -2.5

Total

45.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

JAX by 8.5

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -2.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowJAX -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (187 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -2.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 2.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 2.9; 40.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TB @ NO 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	23–3	W	U45.5
Close	DET @ CHI 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	13–28	L	U44.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	26–7	W	U44.5
Loose	CHI @ GB 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-1.5	7–31	L	U46.5
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & spread	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & spread	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Loose	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ NYG	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	vs TEN	W41–7WO
Dec 6	@ CHI	L16–35LO

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ DAL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ JAX	L7–41LO
Dec 6	vs WSH	L19–42LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

JAX 23–32 TEN TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Tennessee Titans 7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 41	JAX -13.5	JAX W
Nov 30 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 25 @ Tennessee Titans 3	JAX -6	JAX W
Dec 29 2024	Tennessee Titans 13 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	TEN -1.5	JAX W
Dec 8 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Tennessee Titans 6	TEN -3.5	JAX W
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JAX

Longer bar = better

TEN

Offense

◀ JAX better

#29

#14

Defense

Even

#17

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.5 #24

60 plays #23

Pace

◀ JAX faster

53 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	21.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.21 #15	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.04 #23	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	43% #15	JAX

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.82 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	40% #24	43% #13	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.