Patriots vs Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 10 · Neutral site

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

Sun 9:30 AM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

NE 46%

54% DET

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

48.5

model 50.5

Spread edge

NE by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like DET as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against NE, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 1.8; 43.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs KC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	14–21	L	U51
Close	KC vs PHI 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	22–40	L	O48.5
Loose	MIA vs WSH 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–13	W	U46.5
Loose	JAX vs CHI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	16–35	L	O44.5
Loose	SF vs KC 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-2	22–25	L	P47
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI vs GB 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	34–29	W	O49.5
Loose	IND vs NE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1	10–6	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	—	1-2-1
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	—	1-2-1

Venue/role: NE neutral, as underdog; DET neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ LAC	W16–3WU
Dec 6	vs BUF	W29–26WO
Dec 10	vs MIN	No meeting since 2023

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs TB	W24–9WU
Nov 26	vs CHI	W19–16WU
Dec 6	@ ATL	W20–6

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 5–2 DET NE leads · 7 games since 2000 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

DET

#11

Offense

DET better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ NE better

#28

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.8 #5

62 plays #16

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	29.6 #30	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.63 #24	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	+0.15 #31	NE
Success rate	45% #12	48% #28	NE

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	20.4 #9	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.36 #16	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	+0.02 #20	DET
Success rate	49% #3	44% #20	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.