Bills @ Patriots: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

BUF 45%

55% NE

Spread

NE -1.5

Total

48.5

model 50.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.2; 51.5 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Very close	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	17–20	L	U49
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Close	JAX vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Close	KC vs PHI 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	17–21	L	U46.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-0
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ GB	No meeting since 2023
Dec 19	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 25	@ DEN	L30–33LO

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs MIN	No meeting since 2023
Dec 21	@ KC	L17–27PO
Dec 27	@ NYJ	W26–19LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BUF 16–40 NE NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2026	New England Patriots 29 @ Buffalo Bills 26	BUF -7	NE W
Dec 14 2025	Buffalo Bills 35 @ New England Patriots 31	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 5 2025	New England Patriots 23 @ Buffalo Bills 20	BUF -7.5	NE W
Jan 5 2024	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New England Patriots 23	BUF -3.5	NE W
Dec 22 2024	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -14.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#11

#28

Defense

NE better ▶

#16

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−1.0 #30

60 plays #25

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.4 #9	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	5.36 #16	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	+0.02 #20	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	44% #20	BUF

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	28.5 #28	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.64 #25	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	+0.13 #30	NE
Success rate	45% #12	47% #27	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.