Dolphins @ Broncos: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Denver Broncos

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

MIA 20%

80% DEN

Spread

DEN -9.5

Total

42.5

model 41

Spread edge

MIA by 2.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -9.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -9.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 9.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 9.2; 42.3 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Very close	LAC vs LV 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	31–14	W	O40.5
Very close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Very close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Very close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Close	JAX vs CIN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	31–34	L	O41
Close	DEN vs LV 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	10–7	L	U41.5
Close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ GB	L17–30LU
Dec 27	vs LAC	L27–29WO

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ NYJ	W13–11LU
Dec 20	@ LV	W24–17LO
Dec 25	vs BUF	W33–30WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 7–4 DEN MIA leads · 11 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Denver Broncos 20 @ Miami Dolphins 70	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIA

Longer bar = better

DEN

#27

Offense

Even

#28

#26

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.7 #7

55 plays #31

Pace

Even

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	MIA off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.05 #13	DEN
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	38% #29	40% #4	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	26.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.50 #21	MIA
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.11 #29	Even
Success rate	38% #28	49% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

DEN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.