Broncos @ Steelers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

Fri 3:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

DEN 55%

45% PIT

Spread

DEN -1.5

Total

39.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

PIT by 1

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -1.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now39.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -1.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.7 against an average line of 2; 43.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Very close	PIT @ TB 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	26–19	W	O37.5
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	16–10	W	U36
Very close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Very close	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5
Very close	PIT @ CLE 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	11–34	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-0
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs MIA	L20–70
Dec 13	@ NYJ	W13–11LU
Dec 20	@ LV	W24–17LO

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs HOU	L6–30LU
Dec 14	@ JAX	L10–20LU
Dec 20	vs BAL	W26–24WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 7–6 PIT DEN leads · 13 games since 2003 · PIT has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 13 @ Denver Broncos 6	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DEN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#28

Offense

PIT better ▶

#21

Defense

Even

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #10

57 plays #30

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	DEN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	21.3 #12	PIT
Yards / play	4.40 #31	4.99 #8	PIT
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	38% #28	42% #7	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	PIT off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.05 #13	DEN
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	41% #23	40% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

PIT scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.