Raiders @ Browns: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cleveland Browns

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

LV 46%

54% CLE

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

39.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

LV by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLE -1.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCLE -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLE -1.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 1.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 2.2; 40 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Very close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	10–24	L	U40.5
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	CHI vs ATL 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–17	W	O39.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs CLE 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	17–12	W	U38.5
Close	NYJ vs CAR 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	6–13	L	U39.5
Close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs LAC	W26–14WU
Dec 20	vs DEN	L17–24WO
Dec 27	vs TEN	W20–10WU

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs CIN	W20–18WU
Dec 13	vs ATL	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ NYG	L15–21LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LV 8–7 CLE LV leads · 15 games since 2000 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2025	Cleveland Browns 24 @ Las Vegas Raiders 10	LV -3.5	CLE W
Sep 29 2024	Cleveland Browns 16 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	CLE -2.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

CLE

#13

Offense

◀ LV better

#27

#26

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #17

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LV faster

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	20.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #16	5.03 #10	CLE
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	43% #17	42% #10	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	27.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.99 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	40% #26	45% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

CLE scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.