Titans @ Raiders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

TEN 43%

57% LV

Spread

LV -1.5

Total

42.5

model 43

Spread edge

LV by 5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLV -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLV -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLV -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.7; 40.4 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs PIT 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	30–13	W	O41.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-3	10–12	L	U43
Close	ATL vs WSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	16–24	L	U41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Close	ATL vs NO 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	19–17	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-0

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs PIT	L16–20LP
Jan 10	@ HOU	L3–26LU

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ ARI	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	@ KC	L27–30WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 8–8 LV Series tied · 16 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2025	Tennessee Titans 10 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	LV -4.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TEN

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

LV better ▶

#13

#17

Defense

◀ TEN better

#26

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

LV better ▶

+0.3 #15

53 plays #32

Pace

LV faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	27.0 #26	LV
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.99 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.03 #22	LV
Success rate	40% #24	45% #26	Even

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	21.5 #13	LV
Yards / play	5.33 #16	5.21 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.04 #23	LV
Success rate	43% #17	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

LV scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.