Titans @ Texans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

TEN 25%

75% HOU

Spread

HOU -7

Total

39.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

HOU by 5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -7

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 50% (117 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -7

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 7-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 6.7; 43.5 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	NO vs NYG 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	24–6	W	U39.5
Very close	NO vs CAR 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	28–6	W	U38.5
Very close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	NO vs CHI 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	24–17	W	P41
Close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	34–14	W	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Titans

No more games this season.

Houston Texans

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TEN 24–25 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2026	Houston Texans 26 @ Tennessee Titans 3	HOU -6.5	HOU W
Nov 16 2025	Houston Texans 16 @ Tennessee Titans 13	HOU -5.5	TEN W
Sep 28 2025	Tennessee Titans 0 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -7.5	HOU W
Jan 5 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Tennessee Titans 14	TEN -2.5	HOU W
Nov 24 2024	Tennessee Titans 32 @ Houston Texans 27	HOU -7.5	TEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

TEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#29

Offense

HOU better ▶

#14

#17

Defense

Even

#15

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.5 #11

53 plays #32

Pace

HOU faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	23.8 #20	HOU
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	0.00 #18	HOU
Success rate	40% #24	41% #6	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	21.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.21 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.04 #23	HOU
Success rate	43% #16	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.