Browns @ Bengals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

CLE 25%

75% CIN

Spread

CIN -7.5

Total

43.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

CIN by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -7.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (125 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -7.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 7.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 7.2; 46.3 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	NE vs NYJ 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	26–19	L	O42.5
Very close	SEA vs ARI 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	44–22	W	O44.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Very close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cleveland Browns

No more games this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CLE 22–32 CIN CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Cleveland Browns 20 @ Cincinnati Bengals 18	CIN -8.5	CLE W
Sep 7 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Cleveland Browns 16	CIN -5.5	CLE W
Dec 22 2024	Cleveland Browns 6 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	CIN -10.5	CIN W
Oct 20 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 21 @ Cleveland Browns 14	CIN -5.5	CIN W
Jan 7 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -7	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CLE

Longer bar = better

CIN

#27

Offense

CIN better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ CLE better

#17

0.0 #17

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.4 #12

59 plays #26

Pace

CIN faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	21.8 #14	CIN
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.61 #23	CIN
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.03 #15	CIN
Success rate	40% #26	43% #14	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.49 #12	5.03 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	47% #8	42% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.